美国金融危机传染效应的国际比较研究

Internationally Comparative Researches on the Contagious Effects of American Financial Crisis

目前,对于金融危机国际传染性的研究主要集中在危机传染渠道上,而较少关注危机传染效应在不同国家或地区之间的差异性,以及政府政策对传染性的影响。本文利用Lotka的传染模型研究美国金融危机对中国、欧盟和日本的传染性,结果发现,在没有政策干预的情况下,美国金融危机对中国的传染滞后于其他国家,且影响的严重性相对较小,但中国经济恢复的速度比较缓慢。而在有政策干预的情况下,中国受影响的严重性明显降低,但是政策干预并不能使得中国迅速从美国金融危机中恢复。

Now the researches on the international contagious financial crisis focus mainly on the channels by which the crisis infect each other, but few researches attend to the difference of the effects among the countries and the effects of policy interference. The paper studies the contagious effects of American financial crisis on China, EU and Japan by the Lotka model. We find that the effect on China appears slowly, unbadly and reseovers slowly under no policy interference. However, under the policy interference, the severity of the effects on China is mitigated remarkably, but the interference could not make China rescover fast from the impacts of the American financial crisis.