气候因素对滨海旅游目的地旅游需求的影响——以海南岛为例

Impacts of Climate Factors on Tourism Demand for Coastal Destinations:A Case Study on Hai'nan Province

独特的气候条件是滨海旅游目的地优势之一,气候要素对旅游决策、旅游需求有着重要的影响。本研究以海南这一典型滨海旅游目的地为研究对象,构建基于引力模型的、整合经济因素和日照时数、温度、降水、海岸线长度等非经济因素的旅游需求模型,着重分析气候因素对赴琼旅游者旅游需求的影响。结果表明,温度、日照时数、降水对旅游需求有明显影响,但显著性水平低于经济因素。夏季,温度对赴琼旅游需求有正向作用,影响仅次于人均可支配收入。日照时数负作用于旅游需求,其影响占到了第三的位置;冬季温度和日照时数对旅游需求影响不显著,可能和游客先验的"海南无冬季"印象有关。

Tourism is one of the fastest growing economic sectors around the globe and it already ranks first in socioeconomic importance in many countries and regions. The future global climate change is receiving much attention from the scientific community as well as the public. Model simulations and palaeoclimatic data studies showed that an evident change in temperature and precipitation over China would occur under the condition of global change. The impact of climate change on national tourism would therefore be obvious. As to coastal destination, climate is more important. Coastal tourism and its activity highly depend on climate factors, such as sunshine, and temperature. So the change in these climate factors would have a significant effect on tourism decision and tourism demand for tourists to coast. Hai＇ nan province is a typical coastal tourism destination in China. Tourism resources, development conditions as well as current situations in Hai ＇ nan contributed it to the first place for eight costal destinations of China. In the present work, the authors investigated the relationship between climate factors and costal tourism in Hai＇ nan province and expected to provide meaningful reference for similar studies in China. It is believed that although tourism demand belongs to the realm of economy, it is significantly influenced by non-economic factors such as sunshine hours, temperature, precipitation and coastline length. However, the latter is usually ignored, which is the key issue that the authors took into account and would like to address. Based on the Gravity model, the authors developed a tourism demand-based model involving economic factors as well as non-economic factors. On the basis of the model, the author quantified the impacts of climate factors on tourism demand for tourists to Hai＇ nan. Results suggested that temperature, sunshine hours and precipitation had significant impacts on tourism demand. However, the impact of economic factors on tourism demand was more significant than that of natural factors. In summer, temperature had a positive effect on tourism demand, followed by that the factor of income and sunshine hours. It was also found that sunshine hours negatively affected tourism demand. But in winter, temperature and sunshine hours had no significant impact on tourist demand which could be ascribed to tourist＇ s intuition of there being no winter in Hai＇ nan.