基于DPSIR模型的天津滨海新区环境风险变化趋势分析

Study on the Variation Trends of Regional Environmental Risk for Tianjin Binhai New Area Based on DPSIR Model

考虑区域环境污染事件的形成机制,根据驱动力-压力-状态-影响-响应(DPSIR)模型框架,提出系统度量区域环境风险变化趋势的指标体系和评价模型,并对天津滨海新区工业化进程中突发性环境污染事件引发的环境风险变化趋势进行了评估.结果表明:天津滨海新区2007,2015及2020年环境风险分别为0.487,0.508和0.367,分别处于警戒状态、较差状态和警戒状态,说明滨海新区环境风险形势比较严峻,需要进一步采取更有效的响应对策.

According to the formation mechanism of regional environmental pollution accidents and the Driving Forces-Pressures-State- Impacts-Responses （DPSIR） model, a set of indices and an evaluation model were constructed to measure systematically the variation trends of the regional environmental risk. The indices were used to assess the variation trends of the regional environmental risk caused by environmental emergencies in the process of industrialization for Tianjin Binhai New Area. The results show that the value of the environmental risk factor was O. 487 in the Tianjin Binhai New Area in 2007, which indicates that the environmental security conditions in the area were relatively unsafe. The values of the environmental risk factors are projected to be 0. 508 （worse condition） and 0. 367 （moderate condition） in 2015 and 2020, respectively. These will provide important guidance to policy makers for preventing accidents and dealing with emergencies.