RTA对FDI影响的第三国效应——挤出还是溢出

Third-country Effect of RTA on FDI:Crowd-out or Spill-over?

本文利用美国在亚太地区的投资考察了区域贸易协定(RTA)对FDI影响的第三国效应。利用空间面板数据的研究结果发现,美国在亚太地区的FDI具有明显的混合型特征;RTA具有非常显著的投资效应和第三国效应,一国加入RTA提高了本国吸引FDI的能力,却对其他国家的FDI构成了明显的挤出效应;稳健性分析表明,结论对于空间权数和解释变量的选择都是稳健的;根据测算,由于周边自由贸易区的签订,中国被挤出的FDI为17.5%。论文最后对我国的RTA政策提出了相关建议。

This paper studies the third-country effect of RTA on FDI by using the data of FDI of the United States in Asia-Pacific area.Using spatial panel data,we found that the United States' FDI has significant complex characteristic.RTA has significant investment effect and third-country effect.The entry of one country into RTA improves its ability to attract FDI but crowd-out the neighbor countries' FDI.The conclusion is robust to estimation method and spatial weight.According to the computation,China's inward FDI was crowded out by 17.5%.We propose some advice on China's RTA policy.