天水苹果发育模拟模型研究

Simulation of the development of apple in Tianshui

以苹果的发育生理生态过程为基础,以生理发育时间为尺度,利用天水河谷区麦积试验点的数据,建立了苹果发育模拟模型,并用渭北区秦安和关山区清水点观测数据对模型进行了检验。结果表明,模型能较好地预测各个发育阶段(叶芽膨大期、叶芽开放期、展叶盛期、开花盛期、果实成熟期、叶变色始期)的出现时间和持续日数。模型对苹果各个生育时期的绝对预测误差一般小于7 d,模拟值与观测值的回归估计标准误差(RMSE)在到达叶芽开放期、展叶盛期、开花盛期、果实成熟期、叶变色始期等生育时期时分别为2.4、0.9、2.7、4.04、.0 d;各个发育阶段持续天数的预测误差分别为2.4、2.0、2.3、4.03、.4 d。

Using experimental data in Maiji area of Tianshui in the valley of Weihe River, a simulation model for apple development was developed based on the concept of physiological development time （PDT） and the photo-thermal reactions of apple in Tianshui. The model was validated by independent experimental data from Qin＇ an of the north of Wei River and Qingshui of the area of Guanshan Mountains. The results showed that the model could predict better the time of emergence and the sustained number of days of various developmental stages simulated results agreed well with the measured ones. The absolute forecast error of the model is typically less than 7 days in the various development stages of apple, the root mean squared error（RMSE） of simulated and observed values is respectively 2.4, 0.9, 2.7, 4.0, 4.0 days when apple reaches leaf bud open, unfolds leaf peak, flowering peak, fruit mature period and leaf starts to change color development period, the forecast error of sustained the number of days in various development stages is respectively 2.4, 2.0, 2.3, 4.0, 3.4 days.