江苏省城市规模分布的演化分析

Evolution of City-Size Distribution of Jiangsu Province

文章应用位序—规模法则和分形理论,通过普通最小二乘法(OLS)对江苏城市规模分布各项参数进行了估计,在此基础上探讨了江苏城市人口规模分布从1990～2002年的演变趋势。结果显示:(1)位序—规模法则能够很好地描述江苏城市规模分布规律;(2)城市体系发育较为健全,均衡度不断增强;(3)江苏城市人口规模分布规律性明显,随着时间推移,城市规模分布呈现近似平行状态;(4)江苏城市分布的区域性差距明显。

Based on city rank-size rule and fractal theory, Jiangsu Province city-size distribution parameters are estimated in this study using ordinary least squares （OLS） method, and the evolution trend of city-size distribution of urban population in Jiangsu from 1990-2002 is further discussed, The results showed that： 1） rank-size rule can be a good description of the size distribution of cities in Jiangsu Province; 2） development of the urban system is more robust, balanced and ever- strengthening; 3） size distribution of urban population in Jiangsu apparent regularity. As time goes on, city-size distribution showed approximately parallel to the state; 4） Jiangsu urban distribution of regional disparities are also visible.