基于Multi-Agent的突发事件多部门协同应对建模与分析

Simulation of synergetic mechanism in emergency response based on multi-agent method

为了掌握突发事件时各部门协同工作的影响,以2008年初中国的雨雪冰冻灾害为例,采用多主体(multi-agent)方法对雪灾中的典型多部门协同进行了建模与分析。多主体模型采用混合结构主体,将公路、铁路、电网等实体系统和相应的职能管理部门如交通部、铁道部、电网公司等联合建模,模拟和分析了无协同、弱协同、强协同3种不同协同机制对于突发事件应对效果的影响。研究表明:无协同情况下各系统的受损情况与天气条件表现出明显的相关性,而协同的存在极大地减弱了这种相关性;对于存在多系统间耦合影响的情况,协同应对的效果尤为明显;具有高度协调能力的中枢机构是良好的多部门协同机制的关键所在。

The synergy between multiple government ministries during emergency responses was analyzed in simulations based on the multi-agent method. The response to the 2008 snow storms in China was used as an example. The multi-agent model was developed by considering various systems such as the highway, railway, and electrical networks, together with their corresponding ministries. Three different synergetie mechanisms are discussed as no-synergy, low-synergy, and high-synergy. Without synergy the systems become severely damaged with high cross correlation to the weather conditions. The synergy obviously helps reduce the cross correlation. Also, the synergy improves the emergency response efficiency with better response especially for multi-system interaction cases. The key to the synergetie mechanism is to have efficient interchanges and schedule centers.