上海市公共投资经济拉动效应的实证分析

An experimental analysis on Shanghai's Public Investment:its economic pulling and impact effect

本文采用1978年～2007年上海政府公共投资与外商直接投资、上海地区GDP和非公经济产值等时间序列数据，运用协整分析和VAR模型、脉冲响应函数等工具，力图分析上海近年来及今后经济增长的推力所在及其传导机制。结果显示，上海自改革开放到现在的经济增长主要得益于政府公共投资的拉动，这些投资经过一定时间的积淀，对经济增长的促进作用会逐步显现出来。政府公共投资通过改善投资环境和人民生活，吸引了外商和民营企业投资的涌入，增加了就业和市场供求，反过采增加了政府可以继续加大公共投资的财力，实现了经济的良性增长，但它短期内也可产生抵冲民营资本的作用；外商直接投资和非公经济产值之间是互为影响的因果关系，说明两者存在共存共荣的产业生态联系。

Based on the time series data of Shanghai public investment, vate turnovers in 1978 -2007,the paper wish to answer the question how S municipal GDP, FDI and prihanghaig economic growth has been pushed forward recently and what are its impact effects, using co - integration analysis, VAR and impulse response function, etc. It shows that Shanghai＇s economic growth since the opening and reforms has profited from public investment enormously. The investment＇s impact towards Shanghai＇s economic growth will gradually take effect after time lag. It is proved that public investment has pulled in more and more FDI and private investment by improving investment environment and inhabitant living standard. It also increases the market supply, employment and governmental financial power that can increase public investment as well to realize a sound economic growth. However, it will also push out private investment in the short time. The paper found that FDI and private turnovers have a mutual causality that can explain their industrial ecologic relationship.