后世博效应研究及预测——以上海为例

Researching on the Post Expo Effect:Shanghai Economic Development as an Example

基于后世博效应的一般性研究,结合上海经济发展面临的内外部环境,以世博会举办后的2011年为时间基点,以"十二五"期间为时间窗口,分乐观情景、基准情景和风险情景三种情境对后世博上海经济发展态势进行预测分析。研究认为,后世博上海GDP增长率略有回落的基础上继续保持平稳增长,年均增长率在8.21%和10.96%之间;后世博效应将带动旅游、会展、商贸等服务业快速发展,推动上海经济发展方式转变,提升产业结构水平,逐步实现以服务经济为主的经济结构。

Based on general analysis of the Post World Expo Effect, and Shanghai＇s economic development facing internal and external environment, this paper takes 2011 as the time point, and ＂12th Five - Year Plan＂ as the time window, from optimistic, baseline, and risk scenario, to forecast Shanghai＇s economic development trend after the World Expo. After the World Expo, Shanghai GDP growth rate will be continued steady growth but slightly down, with an average annual growth rate of 8.21 percent and 10.96 percent between. Meanwhile, the World Expo will provide an impetus to tourism, exhibition, trade, such as service industries, promote the way of economic development, upgrade industrial structure, and realize a service -based economy.