确定梯级水库联合防洪预报调度方式优化方法研究

Optimal method to establish joint flood control operation rules with flood forecast information for cascade reservoirs

针对梯级水库拟定联合调度方式的复杂性,将常规优化调度和预报调度规划方式相融合,提出一种确定梯级水库联合预报调度方式的优化方法.首先,对于选定的调度目标,采用优化手段寻求梯级水库不同频率设计洪水的最优联合调度方式,并综合分析归纳最优泄流过程的特点;其次,对各库的预报调度潜力进行分析,结合最优泄流过程的特点选择预报判别指标,在不考虑预报误差的情况下拟定理想联合预报调度规则;最后,对预报判别指标的误差进行分析,在理想联合预报调度规则的基础上制定满意的联合预报调度规则.将该方法应用于昭平台与白龟山梯级水库,结果表明此方法在一定程度上减少了确定梯级水库联合调度方式的复杂性,为库群防洪预报调度方式研究提供了新途径.

Combining conventional optimal operation and forecast dispatch, an optimal method is proposed to simplify the process of determining the optimal joint flood control operation rules with flood forecast information for cascade reservoirs. First, for the operation target the optimal joint operation rules based on the hydrographs are sought to minimize the occupied flood volumes for controlling the various design floods, and the characteristics of the optimal set of operation rules are analyzed and concluded. Next, the indexes for judging flood frequency are ascertained and the ideal joint flood operation rules are drawn up in terms of forecast peak flow but with no consideration of peak flow forecast error. Last, the satisfactory joint operation rules are determined by taking into account of flow forecast errors for various design floods based on ideal joint forecast operation rules. An application is given to the Zhaopingtai and Baiguishan cascade reservoirs. The application results indicate that this method simplifies the process of determining the joint flood control operation rules with flood forecast information for cascade reservoirs. It＇s a new approach to solve this kind of optimal problem