全球金融危机经济刺激方案的退出策略:历史经验与现实选择

The Exit Strategy for the Economic Stimulus Package in the Global Financial Crisis:Historical Experience and Realistic Choice

在全球经济进入企稳回升的大背景下,前期经济刺激方案所带来的通货膨胀、财政危机等潜在风险开始显现。为此,如何适时、有序地退出经济刺激方案将成为世界主要经济体未来所面临的重大挑战。本文对1929～1933年大萧条后期的经济刺激方案的退出策略进行了重点分析,并在此基础上给出了此次经济刺激方案退出策略的现实选择。

With the recovery of global economy, the potential risks that might be brought about by the economic stimulus package adopted earlier, such as inflation and fiscal crisis, begin to emerge. Therefore, how to exit the economic stimulus package in a timely and orderly manner will become a major challenge for the world＇s major economies in the future. In this paper, we focus on the exit strategy in the latter part of the Great Depression during 1929~1933 and point out the realistic choice of exit strategy for the current economic stimulus package.