浅析金融危机对浙江省经济增长的影响——基于贸易传导机制分析

On financial crisis’s influence on Zhejian province economy growth——analysis basing on trade conducting mechanism analysis

贸易传导是国际经济波动中一个重要的传播渠道。浙江省作为典型的出口导向型省份,进出口贸易占国内生产总值的比重较高。金融危机不但使浙江省的进出口贸易出现疲软的状况,还通过贸易传导机制给经济增长带来了冲击。本文利用1978～2008年浙江省出口额、进口额和GDP数据建立向量误差修正(VEC)模型,并在此基础上,进行脉冲响应函数分析,结果显示:金融危机通过贸易渠道传递给浙江省经济增长的冲击不但影响力度较大,还会持续较长时间。为应对本次金融危机和增强实体经济今后抵御外部冲击的能力,浙江省应开拓出口贸易新兴市场,优化出口商品结构,发展进口贸易,提高进口商品技术含量和扶持中小企业发展。

International trade transmission mechani sm is one of the most important approaches for global economic fluctuations. Zhejiang province, as a typical export-oriented area in China, has high degree of dependence on foreign trade. Because of this, financial crisis also has an impact on foreign trade and economy in Zhejiang province through international trade transmission mechanism. This study examines the impact of foreign trade and economic growth by using time series data from the year of 1978 to 2008 and establishes a Vector Error Correction Model （VECM）. Then, it analyzes the Impulse Response Function based on the VECM. It concluded that at the beginning economy will be seriously affected by financial crisis and this influence will keep a long time into future. Based on the positive study, some countermeasures are put forward to help Zhejiang withstand the financial crisis and other similar external shocks.