形成中的中亚地区格局：尚存的单极残余、不稳定多极和其他选择

The Emerging Regional Configuration in Central Asia:the Remaining Traces of Unipolarity,Unstable Multi-polarity and Other Alternatives

作者认为中亚地区格局不能使用"大博弈"的模式予以解读,复合的权力结构模式可能更具有解释力。具有传统影响力的俄罗斯、崛起的中国、强大的美国以及区内大国哈萨克斯坦和乌兹别克斯坦等一起构建了中亚地区复杂的地缘政治网络。中亚国家从国际政治行为客体到日益具备行为主体特征的身份转变,是形成这种地区格局的重要原因。就中国而言,以一种合作性的多边主义为原则,推动各方以中亚地区的和平、稳定、可持续发展为共同目标实行开放型的合作,营造和谐的中亚地区,是一个较好的战略选择。

The author argues the pattern of the Central Asian region can not be interpreted by the ＂Great Game＂ model but proposes that the complex power structure model may be more explanatory. The traditional hegemony of Russia, the rise of China, the global hegemony of the United States and the regional powers such as Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, have composed the complicated geo-political network in Central Asian region. The change of Central Asian countries from the objects of the international politics to the identity with more and more subjective characteristics is an important reason for such a regional structure. As for China, it is a better strategic choice to promote open cooperation with the common aim for peace, stability and sustainable development in Central Asian region and establish a harmonious Central Asian region based on the principle of cooperative multilateralism.