基于系统动力学的新疆焉耆县水资源需求分析

ANALYSIS OF WATER RESOURCES BASED ON SD MODEL IN YANQI COUNTY

应用系统动力学方法,建立了县域水资源利用SD模型,并对焉耆县主要的水资源利用系统中的农业需水量、工业需水量、生活需水量、牲畜需水量和生态需水量进行了仿真模拟,分析了焉耆县未来20年中各用水系统的动态趋势。通过仿真模拟可以看出,农业用水是该县的主要用水,用水量高达90%以上。农业用水量决定着总需水量的变化趋势,并极大地影响着水资源的供需关系;其他方面需水量在未来20年中虽有大幅度增长的趋势,但所占比例很小,不能对总供需水关系产生明显的影响。从供水角度讲,提高地表水和地下水联合开发比例,可以较大缓解供水压力。文章旨在运用系统动力学方法,通过建立SD模型,为认识焉耆县水资源供需现状及发展趋势提供一种途径。

Water resource is an important factor for the socio-economic development. In the North Western China, the climate is very dry,the water resource is lack,and the eco-environment is weak,while the growth rate of population is high and the eco-society is undeveloped. The demand of water resources increases with the development of society and economy have resulted in more and more serious contradiction between ecology and economy. Limited water resources have became the obstacle for the sustainable development of socio-economic and the stabilization of weak eco-environment in the North Western China. So,how to protect,exploit and utilize water resources becomes a hot topic in home and abroad. Yanqi County is located in the extremely drought region of theYanqi Basin,which is located in the south of the middle Tianshan Mountain of the Tarim River Basin in Xinjiang. Owing to the unreasonable water resource use,the water use efficiency is very low, the groundwater depth becomes very low,the soil salinization becomes more and more serious, and the society, economy and ecological environment become worse and worse in Yanqi County. Therefore,achieving an effective water use style is urgent for reasonable water use in Yanqi County and the entire arid and semiarid land. System Dynamics （SD） helps achieving a reasonable utilization style of water resources. In this paper, based on the statistics of eco-society,water resources and eco-environment from the yearbook of Xinjiang in 2000 - 2007 and Bureau of Water Resources of Bazhou,a simple SD model about the usage of water resources was established, and the tends of water quantity of agricultural, industrial, domestic, livestock and ecological water demands were simulate and analyzed in the next twenty years in Yanqi County. The results show that the proportion of agricultural water demand is very high, up to 90%, and its variation determines the change of the total water demand, and immensely affects the water demand and supply. Although the other water demands would increase rapidly in the next twenty years, they could not obviously affect the demand and supply of water resource because of their low proportion. From the poing of view of water supply, the feed-water pressure would be obviously alleviated by improving the exploitable proportion of surface water and groundwater. The objective of this study is to provide a scientific basis for reasonable water use and to provide a new approach to understand water demand and supply in future in the arid area.