基于海温的江苏省水稻高温热害预测

Prediction of high temperature harm to rice in Jiangsu Province based on sea surface temperature

根据1986—2007年江苏省8个主要农业气象观测站水稻观测资料、常规气象观测资料,分析了典型高温年份(2003年)副热带高压异常偏强偏南的环流特征、副热带高压异常与前期的太平洋海温异常的可能关系以及水稻生长关键期对异常高温的生理响应,并将西太平洋海温作为因子,与江苏省淮北、江淮、苏南3个地区的高温热害指标进行了场相关分析.结果表明:淮北、江淮、苏南3个地区的水稻高温热害指标与西太平洋海温存在共同的高相关区,即Nino区、西太平洋北部地区及西太平洋暖池区,但3个地区的相关程度及其随时间的变化趋势不甚相同;对高相关海区的温度进行最优化相关处理,提高了预测因子的相关合理性;在淮北、江淮、苏南3个地区建立的水稻高温热害预测模型的模拟结果均达极显著水平(P<0.01).

Based on the measurements of rice growth and the ordinary meteorological observations from eight main agro-meteorological stations in Jiangsu Province in 1986-2007,this paper analyzed the characteristics of generation circulation corresponding to the abnormal strong and southern subtropical high pressure in 2003 （the year with a typically high temperature）,the relationships between the abnormalities of subtropical high pressure and previous sea surface temperature,and the physiological responses of rice to the abnormal high temperature during its crucial development stages.In the meantime,a field correlation analysis was made on the relationships between the harm index of high temperature in the northern （Huaibei）,middle （Jianghuai）,and southern （Sunan） areas of Jiangsu and the sea surface temperature （SST） of Western Pacific.The results showed that the harm index of high temperature in the three areas was highly correlated with the SST of Nino area,northern area,and warm pool area of Western Pacific,respectively,but the significance and temporal evolution of the correlations varied among the areas.The transformation of SST was conducted to optimize its correlation with the harm index of high temperature,and an increased reliability of SST acting as a predictor of high temperature harm was obtained.The simulation results of the established models in predicting high temperature harm to rice in Huaibei,Jianghuai and Sunan areas of Jiangsu Province were significant at 0.01 level.