摘要
介绍了贝叶斯网络的基础理论。将贝叶斯网络引用到火灾调查领域,以助燃剂纵火案的火灾调查分析案例为例,分析了纵火案件中的原因事件和结果事件以及各个因素之间的相互影响关系,根据火灾发生过程建立了贝叶斯网络模型。同时通过贝叶斯算法对火灾调查贝叶斯网络的计算方法进行了研究分析。分析了贝叶斯结构图中涉及到的火灾发生因素概率值的数据来源。
The theory of Bayesian network is introduced and applied in fire investigation. Taking the fire investigation case of arson with accelerant as an example, the reason accidents and resultative events in arson together with the interference of each factor are analyzed, and the Bayesian network model is founded according to the process of the fire. The calculating method of the Bayesian network in fire investigation is researched based on the Bayesian method. The data source of the probability of factors causing the fire which is concerned in Bayesian network is analyzed.
出处
《消防科学与技术》
CAS
北大核心
2010年第2期174-176,共3页
Fire Science and Technology
基金
苏州市科学技术协会2009年软科学研究课题项目"基于贝叶斯网络的火灾原因调查方法研究"
关键词
火灾调查
助燃剂
贝叶斯网络
fire investigation
accelerant
Bayesian network
