日本资本项目开放与汇率政策研究

Capital Account Deregulation and Exchange rate Policies of Japan

日本的资本项目开放从开始推动到最终实现,经历了30多年的时间。在资本项目开放的同时,日元汇率也从360日元兑1美元大幅升值到2009年的平均93.62日元兑1美元。期间日本政府采取了宏观政策、资本管制、直接干预等多种手段,力求维护日元汇率稳定。有选择的渐进式开放是日本资本项目开放的主要经验,而成功的资本管制为有序开放提供了保障。日本在资本项目开放时,汇率政策与货币政策出现失误,是导致日本"失去的10年"的主要原因。中国未来的资本项目开放必须吸取日本的经验和教训。

Japan took more than thirty years to have an open capital account. During the period, exchange rate of Yen per Dollar appreciated from 360 to an average of 93.63 in 2009. Japanese government took multiple measures including macro policies, capital control and direct intervention to stabilize the exchange rates. Japans cap- ital account deregulation is selective and progressive, with the successful capital control as a guarantee for stabil- ity. However, inadequate exchange rate policies and monetary policies brought Japan a ＂lost decade＂. The Japanese experiences and lessons have important implications for China in capital account deregulation.