装备全寿命期风险评估方法综述

Summarize of Risk Evaluation Methods in the Entire Life Cycle(ELC) of Equipments

文章针对装备全寿命周期风险的特点，对装备全寿命周期风险识别与评估的方法进行了归纳，并具体到装备全寿命周期各阶段，对风险识别方法进行了总结，对装备全寿命周期风险评估的主要方法进行了简单介绍和适用性比较，指出未来风险评估方法的发展趋势，认为综合集成的评估方法可以成为装备全寿命周期风险评估方法研究的一个方向。

Aiming at the characteristics of the risk ELC of the equipments, the methods of risk identification and evaluation in the ELC of the equipments were concluded~ and the risk identification methods in the specific period of the ELC of the equipments were summarized. A simply introduction and an adaptability comparison of the main risk evaluation methods in the ELC of the equipments were made. The development trend of the risk evaluation methods in the future was pointed out. It was considered that the metasynthetical evaluation methods should be a direction of the risk evaluation methods in the ELC of the equipments .