我国经济刺激计划的退出时机、路径与政策研究

Researches on Exit Timing,Route and Policies for China's Economic Stimulus Plan

2009年11月15日结束的亚太经合组织(APEC)发表《新加坡宣言》:继续采取经济刺激政策。金融危机过后,各国经济复苏势头不稳,经济刺激计划退出未成主流,但各国政府仍出台了相关政策预案为退出计划做准备。由于经济刺激计划本身带有一定的副作用,退出机制不当将导致经济再次下滑。为此,我国应积极调整经济结构,抓住政策退出的关键时机,逐步建立财政政策与货币政策相协调的中国式退出机制,首先暗中紧缩银根并配以温和的窗口指导,其次对外暗示政策转向,最后加大宏观调控力度。

As economic recovery has been unstable in various countries, exit of economic stimulus plan has not become a mainstream. But governments still prepare policies for the exit. Because of the side effects of economic stimulus plans, inappropriate exit mechanism may lead to economic downturn. Therefore, we should adjust economic structure actively, seize the right chance of exit, and establish a Chinese exit mechanism featuring coordination of fiscal policy and monetary policy, which includes tightening money surreptitiously, mild window operation, implying policy transformation to outside, and increasing the efforts of macro-pollcy.