我国人口态势与消费模式对碳排放的影响分析

Impacts of Population Dynamics and Consumption Pattern on Carbon Emission in China

本文应用STIRPAT扩展模型,考察近30年来我国人口规模、人口结构、居民消费及技术进步因素对碳排放的影响。研究发现,居民消费与人口结构变化对我国碳排放的影响已超过人口规模的单一影响力。居民消费水平提高与碳排放增长高度相关,居民消费模式变化正在成为我国碳排放的新的增长点;人口结构因素中,人口城镇化率的提高通过对化石能源消费、水泥制造及土地利用变化等的影响导致碳排放增长;人口年龄结构变化对生产的影响大于对消费的影响,其对碳排放影响的主要途径是生产领域劳动力的丰富供应;家庭户规模减小导致人均消费支出的增加及总户数消费规模的扩张,以家庭户为分析单位考察其对碳排放的影响具有较高的解释力。针对分析结果,探讨了未来我国低碳社会发展的相关应对之策。

By using STIRPAT approach, this paper examines the impacts of population size, population structure, and consumption pattern and technology development on carbon emission in China. It reveals that changes in consumption pattern and population structure are the two major driven factors that played a more important role compared with population size. There is a high correlation between consumption pattern and carbon emission. Urbanization results in increased use of fossil energy, cement products, and changes in land coverage, which all lead to more carbon emission. Population age structure affects the carbon emission mainly through changes in labor force supply and consequently the overall economic growth. Reduction in average family size has negatively linked with the carbon emission as overhead consumption of smaller family household may be bigger than those larger family households, which deserves further studies. The paper also claims that China has made great effort in reduction of carbon emission through population oontrol. Potential social policies concerning low-carbon development are discussed.