对中国人口转变的再思考

China's Demographic Transition Reconsidered

论文作者通过对数十年来中国人口婚育行为模式、家庭结构与类型、死因构成模式转变的简要描述,指出仅在传统和最基本的人口动态、即人口出生、死亡和增长的角度来理解和认识人口转变、包括中国的人口转变,已远远不够,难以适应时代和人口发展的要求。提出人口转变是一个多维的动态历史过程,是一系列特定人口转变的集合。其中人口出生率、死亡率和自然增长率的变动仅仅是人口转变的表象和"外壳",其"内核"则是通过制度、文化和技术等承载的人口行为及其动力机制,由此引致的变化才代表了人口的内在转变,强调关注人口的内在转变是理解中国特色人口转变道路的重要视角和基础。在对人口转变内涵探索的前提下,借助于对国内人口学界近些年有代表性的人口转变理论研究成果的介绍和分析,作者初步探讨了人口转变理论研究的拓展和创新问题。

Reviewing the ohanaes in nuptiality and fertility behavior, family structure, and cause of death pattern of the Chinese population over recent decades, the author arsues that it is far from complete and difficult to meet the practical demand of our era and population development to have an understanding demoaraphic transition, especially the Chinese demographic transition from merely the conventional basic population dynamic involving birth, death and natural increase. Demographic transition is a multidimensional, dynamic and historical process, involving a combination of a serious of specific demoaraphic transitions. Chanaes in birth rate, death rate and natural increase rate are only the surface or the ＂crust＂ of demographio transition. The ＂core＂ of demoBraphic transition is the population behavior and its dynamic mechanism which are held by institutions, culture, and technoloay. Chanaes resulting from the ＂core＂ represent the intrinsic demographio transition. It is the important perspective and basis to understand the demoaraphic transition with Chinese characteristics by looking at intrinsic dernographic transition. Exploring the nature of demographic transition and reviewirg the typical studies in derrographic transition theory in China, the paper discusses future directions and research innovations in dernographic transition theory.