中国经济会步日本经济盛极而衰的后尘吗？

Will Chinese Economy Follow in the Footsteps of Japanese Economy:From Peak to Slump?

中国经济发展路径与20世纪80年代的日本在表象上存在高度的相似性。但是,中国内需的增长潜力远大于日本,资产价格并没有严重脱离实体经济;中国对日本宏观调控出现的失误,可以引以为戒;中国的商业银行始终对资本市场保持高度警惕;中国的海外扩张具有投资性和稳健性。由此,中国出现类似于日本的泡沫经济全面膨胀和崩溃的可能性很小。中国应当坚持走依靠内需拉动经济的道路,提高经济的内生动力,大力发展新兴产业和服务产业,为过剩资金开辟投资渠道,高度重视资产价格过快上涨的风险,继续坚持渐进的金融改革路径,审慎、稳健、前瞻地实施宏观调控。

There is seemingly a high degree of similarity between the development route of Chinese economy and that of Japanese economy in 1980s. However, the growth potential of domestic demand in China is far beyond that in Japan, and asset prices in China do not deviate seriously from real economy; China should learn the lessons of Japanese macro-control; Chinese commercial banks always maintain utmost vigilance against capital market; overseas expansion of Chinese enterprises emphasize profitability and prudence. Therefore, the situation of full expansion and collapse of bubble economy that once happened in Japan does not likely appear in China. China should insist on relying on domestic demand to stimulate economy, improve the endogenous dynamic of economy, vigorously develop emerging industries and service industries, create investment channels for excess capital, attach great importance to the risk resulting from excessive asset price hikes, continue to adhere to the progressive financial reform route, and implement a prudent, steady and forward-looking macro-control.