基于环境CGE模型的鄱阳湖流域氮磷排放调控方案及影响模拟

Controlling Strategies on Nitrogen and Phosphorus Emissions in Poyang Lake Basin Based on ECGE Model

本文基于我国2007年投入产出表和引力模型假设条件下的中国多区域社会经济核算矩阵(SAM)数据库,构建了可计算一般均衡理论和数学优化求解思想的环境CGE(ECGE)模型;并以鄱阳湖流域为研究案例区,设计了两种水质目标下的四种氮、磷营养盐排放调控方案,分别探讨并综合比对了其对江西省及全国其他地区经济增长的影响,为寻求实现鄱阳湖流域经济增长与入湖氮、磷营养盐减排达标的双重目标提供了决策参考信息。研究结果表明,以Ⅲ类水质为控制目标,仅对氮、磷营养盐高排放产业实施减排调控的鄱阳湖流域氮、磷营养盐排放调控方案既能满足当地人们生活改善与区域经济增长的基本要求,又能够通过排污外部成本内在化推动科技投入和生产工艺的改进以不断减少氮、磷营养盐的排放,最终实现人与自然的和谐发展。

With economic growth, eutrophication has become one of the most severe environment problems, including in lake areas. Currently, couples of lakes urgently need decision-making information for the coordination between economic growth and nitrogen and phosphorus emissions controlling. This paper introduces the framework of a multi-regional environmental computable general equilibrium （ECGE） model which is based on the theory of mathematical optimization solution to explore the relationship between economic growth and controlling of nitrogen and phosphorus emissions. A social accounting matrix （SAM） database is created based on the input-output table of 2007 for China's Mainland and an inter-regional trade matrix is built in terms of the gravity model assumption to sup- port the ECGE model. A case study in Poyang Lake Basin is conducted to extract decision making information for nitrogen and phosphorus emissions controlling in order to avoid the broken out of eutrophication as well as to spur economic growth. Four scenarios are designed based on water environmental capacity and emission factors of each sectors of Poyang Lake Basin and simulated by ECGE model one by one. The simulation results show that the scenario, aiming at the Grade III water quality standards and reducing nitrogen and phosphorus emissions from those sectors with high emission, is the most efficient one among all of the four scenarios in coordinating economic development and eutrophication control. The internalization of external environmental costs under this scenario will reduce nitrogen and phosphorus emissions via increasing of science and technology input and improving on processing technique with economic growth of Jiangxi Province as well as other regions.