中国经济行业产出对气象条件变化的敏感性影响分析

Sensitiveness Analyses of Economic Output Impacted by Meteorological Conditions in China

为研究天气气候变化对中国经济行业产出的影响变化,引入气象因素的Cobb-Douglas生产函数,采用了带一阶自回归变量的Panel data-Random effect-AR(1)模型,研究经济产出对气象条件变化的边际影响和敏感性分析。研究表明,气象条件变化对中国8个行业、31个省(区、直辖市)的国民经济产出存在显著敏感性影响。在控制资本和劳动力影响因素的条件下,1984—2006年共22年间中国GDP总值对气象条件变化的敏感性影响约为12.36%。在计量经济效益预测中,度量了我国省域行业经济产出对气象条件敏感性影响,总体特征为:北部大于南部,西部大于东部,在北部以中部气象条件相对更为敏感,而在南部以中部气象条件相对更为不敏感,这与自然气候带分布、地理环境、经济发展类型及其水平和气象灾害分布等均有关系。农业、建筑业、批发零售业、工业、交通运输业、服务业、金融业和房地产业对气象条件变化的敏感性影响从大到小依次为25.4%、14.7%、13.2%,10.9%、10.7%、10.7%、9.2%和7.9%。

In order to assess impacts of climate change and weather conditions to economic output in China, Cobb-Douglas （ C - D in short） Production Function incorporating the meteorological factors is adopted. It adopts Panel data-Random effect-AR （ 1 ） model with one-order auto-regression variable to study marginal effects of different economic outputs on annual meteorological conditions; further research is carried out on sensitivity analysis of economic output affected by mete-orological conditions. The results indicate that changes of meteorological conditions have notable influences on economic outputs of eight industries and 31 provinces （ including municipalities and autonomous regions, not induding Hong Kong, Maeau and Taiwan due to no data） in China. Under fixed capital and labor conditions, over 22 years from 1984 to 2006, the average sensitivity impact of meteorological conditions on the Gross Domestic Product （ GDP in short） output of China has been impacted is approximately 12. 36%. It measures specific sensitivity impacts of eco-nomic output affected by meteorological conditions in different provinces in China based on Panel Data forecasting analyses. The general characteristics are： North China is more sensitive than South China; West China is more sensitive than East China. The middle in the North is relatively more sensitive and the middle in the South is relatively more insensitive. These characteristics are correlative with natural climatic zones, geographical environment, economic types ＆ development level, and meteorological disasters distribution and so on. While in respect of different industries, i.e. agriculture, construction business, whole sale ＆ retail, industry, communication and transfer, services, banking business and real estates, the percentage sequences are 25.4%, 14. 7%, 13.2%, 10. 9%, 10. 7%, 10. 7%, 9.2% and 7. 9%, respectively. It is the basic study for further integrated impact of the response to climate change in China.