基于PSR框架的1953—2008年中国生态建设成效评价

Performance Evaluation of Eco-construction Based on PSR Model in China from 1953 to 2008

论文依据"压力-状态-响应"(PSR)模型,从环境、行为和决策三个层面建立中国生态建设成效评价指标体系。用1953—2008年的时间序列数据,分析我国生态环境质量变化与生态建设成效之间的关系。评价结果表明:我国生态建设成效有所提升,阶段性波动明显,按10年左右为周期划分为6个阶段。环境质量变化及政策演变轨迹相吻合。近60年间生态建设成效经历了不显著甚至负效应再到逐渐显化的过程。评价体系中各子系统及内部因子之间的协调性有待提高,表现为压力较大、状态不佳和响应不够的状况。生态系统演变具有长期性和动态性的特点,为彻底改善生态环境,避免决策失灵,提高生态建设成效,需要国家意志与社会行动共同推动经济增长方式的根本转变。

Performance of eco-construction is very important to regional development in modem society. Based on ＂press-state-response＂ model, this paper puts forward the index system to evaluate the performance of ecological construction in China, which is composed of three aspects： natural environment, human behavior and administrative decision. Using time-series data of China from 1953 to 2008, this article analyzes the relation between alteration of eco-environmental quality and eeo-eonstruetion performance by qualitative and quantitative way. The paper gains three results. The first result shows that the Chinese eco-construetion performance index has a slight increasing trend （0. 506 in 1953 to 0. 509 in 2008）. The fluctuation of data is a period of ten years. There are six phases up to the present. The change of eco-environmental impacts is determined by the effect of all kinds of anthropogenic driving forces. The deterioration of Chinese eco- system becomes to speed up after the reform and opening up in 1978. In order to restore the ecosystem, China carries out a series of policies for environmental protection and projects of eco-construction. Our country pays more and more attention to the eco-environment quality. Chinese ecosystem is improving partially until recent years. Secondly, the change of each PSR subsystem is different. Press subsystem shows the decreasing tendency first and the ascending tendancy later （0. 510 in 1953 to 0. 490 in 2008）. State subsystem indicates a steady decline （ 1. 000 in 1953 to 0.051 in 2008）. Response subsystem is rising gradually （0. 024 in 1953 to 1.000 in 2008）. This paper furthermore discusses the abrupt change points of the curve lines. Thirdly, the article suggests that the harmonious degree between each subsystem of PSR and other inner factors is on the increase （1. 366 in 1953 to 1. 382 in 2008 ）. However, the harmonious degree is negatively correlated with the integrative index. There are many problems in our ecosystem, such as overpressure, poor-state and lacking-response. Taking the long-term and dynamic characteristics of ecosystem into account, the paper proposes that public and government make great efforts to improve the performance of eco-construction. The future policies include shifting from extensive economy mode to intensive economy mode, establishing cooperation between Chinese environment NGO and the government, enhancing legislative protection, and so on.