能源社会核算矩阵模型的构建与应用

The Construction and Application of Energy Social Accounting Matrix Model

本文扩展建立了2005年中国能源SAM,通过设定能源效率不变和提高两种情景,构建了能源SAM模型并使用该模型定量测算了不同情景下四万亿元投资对各部门总产出、GDP、能源需求量和单位GDP能耗的影响。测算结果说明在能源效率不变的情景下这一投资将带来GDP增长59702亿元,能源需求增长52739万吨标准煤,通过优化产业结构降低单位GDP能耗4.932%;在能源利用效率提高5%的情景下则可以带来GDP增长59795亿元,能源需求增长51212万吨标准煤,通过技术进步和产业结构优化的综合效应降低单位GDP能耗5.419%。

In this paper, the energy social accounting matrix of China for 2005 has been established, and the energy SAM model has been constructed and applied to analyze the impacts of four trillion RMB investments on total production, GDP, energy requirement, and energy consumption per GDP under two scenar- ios which are with constant energy efficiency and improved energy efficiency. The empirical results show that, in the constant energy efficiency scenario, this investment will promote GDP increase by 5970.2 billion RMB and energy requirement by 5273. 9 ton of standard coal, and energy consumption per GDP decrease by 4. 932% which is the effect of industry structure optimization, and industrial structure optimization; and in the improved energy efficiency by 5% scenario, this investment will promote GDP increase by 5979.5 billion RMB and energy requirement by 5121.2 ton of standard coal, and energy consumption per GDP decrease by 5.419%, which is the joint effect of industry structure optimization and technology improvement.