雷电临近预警产品评估方法及其软件

Evaluation Method and Software of Lightning Nowcasting and Warning Products

为了适应雷电业务发展的需求,对已经投入业务运行试验的雷电临近预警系统的预警效果做出客观评估,中国气象科学研究院雷电物理和防护工程实验室开展了雷电临近预警产品评估方法的研究,并开发了配套的应用软件。评估方法通过雷电预警结果和实际监测结果的对比,得到命中率POD、虚警率FAR和TS评分三项指标,实现对雷电预警产品的评估。评估软件的实际运行表明:该方法不仅能够检验CAMS-LNWS预报雷电活动的能力,还能对预警方法的改进起到一定的指导作用,能够满足雷电业务产品评估的需要。

In order to make an objective assessment of the effect of the Lightning Nowcasting and Warning System（which is developed by the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,CAMS-LNWS）,the evaluation method of CAMS-LNWS products has been studied and a software has been developed by the Laboratory of Lightning Physics and Protection Engineering.Three indicators,POD（Probability of Detection）,FAR（False Alarm Rate）and TS（Threat Score）are used in the evaluation method.They not only can assess the forecast effect of CAMS-LNWS products,but also can guide the improving of lightning nowcasting and warning methods partially.Owing to the reasonable design,comprehensive functions,easy-to-use interface and rich products,the assessment software can meet the needs for evalution of lightning operational products.