2009年6—8月T639、ECMWF及日本数值模式中期预报性能检验

The Synoptic Verification of Medium-Range Forecast from T639 and ECMWF and JAPAN Models During the Summer of 2009

每年的6—8月是我国主汛期,这个季节高温干旱、暴雨洪涝等气象灾害最为严重。为更好地了解业务主流模式的预报性能,以提高汛期气象服务能力,对2009年6—8月T639、ECMWF(以下简称EC)及JAPAN(以下简称JP)数值模式的预报产品进行了对比分析和检验。结果表明,各家模式对亚洲中高纬度大尺度环流的演变和调整都有较好的预报能力,但均表现出指数值预报偏高的误差;对夏季副高和850hPa气温,T639有一定的中期预报能力,但与EC和JP模式相比,误差偏大,并存在一定的系统性偏差;T639对莫拉克台风的生成预报较好,台风移动和登陆的预报与实况相比有较大误差。

To better use the products of numeric model,the synoptic verification of medium-range forecast from model T639 in the summer of 2009 is made in comparison with ECMWF and Japan models.The results show that the models have good performances in predicting the large-scale circulation evolution and adjustment in the Asian middle and high latitude areas,but they all show a positive error in the westerly index forecast.Model T639 has certain ability in predicting the subtropical-high and the temperature of 850hPa.Compared with the EC and JP models,model T639 has a larger error and shows some systematic errors for the temperature forecast.For typhoon Morakot,model T639 performs well in its genesis forecast,but worse in the typhoon track and landfall forecast.