华中电网用电量与气候的变化及其相关性诊断分析

THE CHANGES OF ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION IN CENTRAL CHINA POWER NETWORK AND CLIMATE AND THEIR CORRELATED DIAGNOSIS

利用华中电网４省１９８６～１９９４年逐月全社会用电量（ｅ１）、居民生活用电量（ｅ２）及同期气候资料研究表明：１）４省气候变化趋势一致即年变化小但季节变化大；２）ｅ１，ｅ２均呈线性增加趋势，冬夏增加最快，ｅ２的相对增长比ｅ１的相对增长快近１倍；３）河南省各季两项气象（影响）用电量与气温均为正相关，与雨量均为负相关，其余３省与气温大多为负相关；４）气温对气象（影响）用电量的影响大于雨量的影响；最后分析了两项气象（影响）用电量与气温的第一对典型变量权重系数的分布特征．

It is revealed that: 1) four provinces in Central China have had the same climatic changing tendency since 1986, such as warmer winter,cooler summer and less rainfall in autumn,more rainfall in other seasons; 2) the total or house power comsumption( e 1,e 2 ) has linear increasing tendency, the relative increasing speed of e 2 is two times of that of e 1 ; 3) electricity consumption ( Y ) affected by weather in Henan is positively related with temperature( T ) and negatively related with rainfall( R ), Y in Hubei,Hunan,Jiangxi mainly have negative relations with T ; 4) T has more important influence on Y than R does.Finally it is analysed that the distibution properties of weighted coefficients of first pair of canonical variables between Y and T .