贝叶斯网络在大坝风险分析中的应用

Application of Bayesian networks to dam risk analysis

风险分析是大坝安全风险管理的重要环节,目前多以事件树、故障树作为分析方法,但存在一定的局限性。而贝叶斯网络作为一个较新的系统风险分析工具,能够快速而有效地求解出系统的失效概率,并能够通过双向推理,直观地分析出系统中各部件对系统安全的影响大小,从而得到系统的薄弱环节,有利于采取安全补救措施。本文在简要介绍贝叶斯网络的基础上,通过两个例子说明贝叶斯网络在大坝风险分析中的应用,从而为大坝风险分析提供一种新方法。

Risk analysis is a key part of risk management for dam safety. The event tree and faulty tree are two methods widely used in this field, but they bear disadvantages. Bayesian networks is a new tool for a rapid calculation of system risk probability and for a direct analysis on the effects of every system component by a two-side reason function, so as to locate the system weakness and adopt a cure. This paper explains the application of Bayesian networks to clam risk analysis and presents two study cases.