高速公路改扩建时机决策方法

Decision-making method of optimal reconstruction time for expressway

为了提高高速公路的通行能力,改善高速公路的服务水平,提出选择高速公路改扩建最佳时机的决策方法。分析了高速公路收费站的交通量统计数据,利用趋势外推法、多元线性回归法和增长系数法预测出高速公路未来年的交通量,根据预测交通量计算的服务水平构建出改扩建时机决策的触发点机制。当某年高速公路实际发生交通量与道路设计交通量相等时,该年为高速公路改扩建的最佳时机。计算结果表明:2011年西宝高速公路服务水平为1.0,此年应进行改扩建,这与西宝高速公路实际改扩建时机吻合,因此,改扩建时机决策方法可靠。

In order to increase expressway capacity and improve expressway service level, a decision-making method of optimal reconstruction time for expressway was proposed. The statistics data of traffic from expressway toll stations were analyzed, and the traffic volumes of future years were predicted by using trend extrapolation method, multinomial regression method and growth factor method. According to the service level of expressway computed with the traffic volumes, the optimal reconstruction time was confirmed when the actual traffic volume equalled to the design traffic volume. Computational result shows that the service level of Xi＇an-Baoji expressway is 1.0 in 2011, which is actual optimal reconstruction time, so the decision-making method is reliable. 10 tabs, 3 figs, 9 refs.