经济增长、人口结构变化与中国高储蓄

Economic Growth,Demographic Transition and China’s High Savings

本文以生命周期理论为出发点，并运用中国1989—2006年的省际面板数据考察了经济增长、人口年龄结构变化以及它们的交互作用对中国储蓄率的影响。我们通过不同的识别方式和各种计量方法实证检验发现：市场经济转型带来的经济高速增长与人口政策转变带来的抚养系数下降导致中国储蓄率不断上升，经济增长对储蓄率上升的贡献随着适龄劳动人口数量的增加而被强化，但会随着人口老龄化程度的加深而被弱化。在使用了不同的识别方法与计量技术并控制了其他潜在影响中国储蓄率的各种因素后，我们的结果基本稳健。

Based on the life-cycle theory, this paper studies the impacts of economic growth, demographic change and their interactive effects on China＇s national savings using dynamic panel data at the provincial level for the period 1989-2006. We use different specifications and econometric methods to conduct our analyses, and find that both rapid economic growth and the sharp decline of the dependency ratio have led to China＇s increasing saving rates. The effects of economic growth and increased share of working population have strengthened each other, but will be weakened as aging becomes serious in the near future. Our results are robust to alternative subsamples, different definitions of variables, and alternative estimation methods.