不完全资本市场、预防性储蓄与通货膨胀的福利成本分析

Incomplete Financial Market,Precautionary Saving and Welfare Cost of Inflation

本文假设不完全资本市场条件下个体的“自我保险”为持币的主要动机，在总体风险和个体风险的框架下，讨论了通货膨胀对异质个体福利的影响。研究表明：对于像中国这样一个有很强信贷约束的不完全资本市场国家，本方法比传统基于MIU和CIA的模型更能反映通货膨胀对中国居民福利的影响。传统的方法低估了对像中国这样的国家中个体的通货膨胀福利成本。此外研究还表明，平均失业期对个体造成的通货膨胀成本影响很大。那些没有储蓄计划个体的出现减少了所有个体的平均福利。通过对总体风险的讨论，我们发现较高的失业率（平均失业期）将大大增加通货膨胀的成本，而工作分享计划则是一种降低通货膨胀成本的好措施。

The paper examines the welfare cost of inflation in an incomplete financial economy where heterogeneous agents hold money for ＂self-insurance＂ in the face of aggregate risks and idiosyncratic risks. Different from traditional models based on MIU and CIA assumptions, the model is more suitable for measuring costs of inflation in a country, such as China with strong credit constraints in incomplete financial markets. The traditional method underestimates the impact of inflation on agent welfare in countries such as China. The finding indicates that, in the incomplete financial market, inflation can decrease agents＇ real savings, increase volatility of consumption and cut agents＇ welfare. If there are aggregate risks in the economy, a high unemployment rate will strongly increase inflation costs. The study also shows that the ＂work share plan＂ is a good way to reduce inflation costs.