旅游流与贸易流的相关性分析

A Correlation Analysis of the Tourist Flows and Trade Flows

旅游流是旅游研究的热点之一,目前有关旅游流与贸易流的相关性研究不足。以1997-2008年中国出入境旅游客流和进出口贸易流的相关统计数据为基础,系统分析了旅游流和贸易流的相关性以及金融危机下旅游流和贸易流的变化情况。结果表明,旅游流与贸易流显著正相关,相关系数在0.960以上,即一个国家国际旅游的发展与国际贸易程度密切相关。因此,在进行国际旅游流需求预测时,国际贸易是一个重要的影响因素,同时在制定有关国际旅游政策与制度时,应充分考虑国际贸易对旅游流的影响。

Tourist flows is one of the hot spots of tourism researches,but the correlation research of tourist flows and trade flows is insuffrcient. Based on the relevant statistical data of the China＇s travel flows and trade flows from 1997 to 2008, the pa- per systematically analyzed the correlation of tourist flows and trade flows, as well as the changes of tourist flows and trade flows in the impact of the financial crisis. The results show that the correlation of tourist flows and trade flows is very signifi- cant, the correlation coefficient is above 0. 960, and that is, a country＇s international tourist development is closely related to international trade. Therefore, international trade is an important factor to forecast the demand for international tourist flows; at the same time, when international tourism policy and system is developed, the impact of international trade on tourist flows should he taken full account,