基于灰色理论的拍卖预测算法研究

Prediction Algorithm Auction Based on Gray Theory

基于网上拍卖结果难以预测,提出一种基于灰色理论的拍卖预测算法,利用连续的灰色微分方程GM(1,1)模型,对拍卖结果进行预测.基于固定历史数据和移动历史数据分别与简单指数函数预测算法和时间序列预测算法使用平均残差(ARE)进行比较,结果显示该方法不但所使用的数据较少也具有较高的准确性.表明该方法可以有效地预测拍卖结果.

Because the final winning price is difficult to predict in the auction, this paper gives a prediction algorithm auction based on Gray Theory, which uses continual pessimistic differential equation GM （ 1,1 ） model, carries on the comprehensive observation analysis to forecast. And we prove it effective through comparing with two techniques which are the Simple Exponential Function and the Time Series with less data and higher accuracy.