外商直接投资对区域经济的产出效应——基于路径收敛设计的研究

Path Converged Design Application to Production Efficiency of FDI in Regions

魏后凯(2002)和武剑(2002)得到两个看似矛盾的结论:东西部区域经济增长差异的90%和不到20%是源自于外商直接投资。本文借鉴李子奈(2008)计量经济建模的"一般性"和"唯一性"原则,提出了路径收敛设计建模方法;澄清了钱雪亚(2007)认为至少有一个结论偏离现实的直观解读,发现魏和武的结论分别吻合了外商直接投资通过资本要素和技术水平的不同效应,得到缩小东中西区域经济增长差异,首先在于吸收外商直接投资是否能够改变国内资本从挤出到挤入效应,而不在于其所引发的技术效应。本文方法,也是对Fine(2000)指出的计量经济建模三个严峻问题给出一个可选择的解决。

Wei and Wu （2002） obtain two seemingly contradictory conclusions that foreign direct investment contributes to 90 percent and less than 20 percent of regional discrepancy between Eastern and Western region, respectively. Illuminated by the idea of Li Zinai （2008）that the econometric population model specification should satisfy the rules of general and sole, this paper establishes Path Converged Design approach for model specification. With application of the approach, the study clarifies the mistake understanding of Qian （2007） to the studies of Wei （2002） and Wu （2002） . Furthermore, the study finds out the results of Wei and Wu are the different effects of FDI on growth through capital factor and technical level respectively, implying the solution to reduce growth disparity between regions relies on whether FDI absorption can shift the crowd-out effect to crowd-in effect on domestic capital rather than on the technical effects it brings about. The approach in this study is also an alternative solution to three problems in theoretical modeling in endogenous growth proposed by Fine （2000）. ＂