基于蒙特卡洛仿真的动态故障树分析

Dynamic Fault Tree Analysis Based on Monte Carlo Simulation

针对基于马尔可夫链的动态故障树分析方法的局限性,把蒙特卡洛方法用于动态故障树分析。研究了动态故障树分析的蒙特卡洛仿真法并给出了仿真的具体步骤,然后利用实例对给定的动态故障树进行了蒙特卡洛仿真,并把仿真结果与精确解进行了比较。结果表明,把蒙特卡洛法用于动态故障树分析是有效的。

Aiming at the localization of dynamic fault tree analysis （FTA） based on Markov Chains, Monte Carlo method is used to instead of dynamic FTA analysis. Research Monte Carlo method of dynamic FTA, and given detailed steps, then progress Monte Carlo simulation using example to dynamic fault tree, and compare simulation result with exact solution. The result shows that Monte Carlo method is effective using dynamic FTA analysis.