汶川大地震后农户的信贷资金需求及其影响因素——基于四川省5个重灾县的农户调查数据

Credit Demand of Rural Households Severely Affected by May 12 Wenchuan Earthquake and Its Determinants:An Empirical Study Based on 451 Quake-affected Rural Households

"5.12"汶川大地震之后,农户的灾后重建带来巨大的资金需求,而金融机构贷款是满足需求的主渠道。根据四川省5个重灾县451户农户的问卷调查数据,本文先对灾区农户的财产损失、灾后重建的资金缺口及其筹资渠道进行了描述性分析,然后用Logistic模型识别了农户信贷资金需求的影响因素。结果显示,灾区农户的户均总损失为46464元,其中房屋损失占81.7%;农户的资金需求具有缺口大、筹资渠道有限等特点;57%的被调查农户获得银行贷款,96.7%的农户贷款是为了建房,贷款的期限和额度主要集中在1～5年和1～5万元;影响农户贷款需求的因素有户主年龄、农户地形、收入和损失。文章最后提出了三点政策性启示。

Based on the survey data of 451 rural households in 5 worst affected counties,this paper first makes a descriptive analysis of the property damage,unmet demand for reconstruction fund and channels of financing,then identifies determinants of credit demand of farm households via Logit model.Results demonstrate that the property damage of quake-affected rural households is worth 46464 Yuan,damage of rural houses accounts for 81.7%.The demand of quake-affected households was characterized by the huge amount and limited raising channels.Of the surveyed households,57% obtain the loan from rural financial institutions,96.7% of borrowers use the credit for house rebuilding,and the loan is in medium term(1-5 year) and small amount(10-50 thousands Yuan).The estimate of Logit model indicates that age of household head,location of houses,income and the amount of loss are the determinants.Finally,three policy implications are put forward.