安徽省粮食生产时空变化特征的影响因素分析

Analysis on Spatial-Temporal Variation Characteristic of Grain Production's Effecting Factors in Anhui Province

根据1997-2007年安徽省统计资料,对全省粮食生产时空变化特征进行了分析,在此基础上,进一步对影响安徽省粮食生产的诸要素进行了灰色关联分析.结果表明:粮食播种面积(耕地面积、粮食播面比与复种指数三者的乘积)、单产、农田水利设施以及农民的粮食收入是影响安徽省粮食生产时空变化的相对活跃因素,粮食生产支持政策对全省粮食生产起到了积极作用,城镇化、工业化以及农业现代化对粮食生产的影响相对较小,但随着工业化、城镇化的进一步发展所带来的耕地非农化、粮食总需求增长的压力,势必对粮食生产提出更高的要求.粮食生产时空变化是资源禀赋背景下,城镇化、工业化及政策因素引致农户响应的结果.

By using county level statistic data from 1997 to 2007, this paper analyzed the characteristic and influencing factors of spatio-temporal variation of grain production in Anhui Province based on grey system theory. The results showed that grain planting area, yield per unit area of grain, farmland water conservancy facility and the farmer＇s income of grain were relatively active influencing factors on spatial-temporal variation of grain production in the study area. Agricultural policies which were devoted to promote grain production played an active role in the recovery phase. Urbanization and industrialization and agricultural modernization had a less effect on grain production, but the streaq of non-agricultural cultivated area and increasing grain demands with the further developing of urbanization and industrialization will raise higher demand to the grain production. Spatio-temporal variation of grain production was the result of the farmer＇ s response in urbanization and industrialization and agricultural policies under the background of endowment of resources.