中国房地产市场波动对宏观经济波动的影响研究

Impact of the Real Estate Fluctuations on the China's Macroeconomics

房地产的波动会通过多种途径影响一国的宏观经济状况。为说明房地产市场的波动对我国宏观经济的影响,我们通过协整和VAR分析得出以下结论:①房地产价格波动对社会消费品零售总额的波动有显著的负影响,且房价波动对消费波动的方差贡献都大于2.5%左右;②我国房地产投资的波动对GDP的增长率有显著的正影响,当房地产投资额的增长率上升1个百分点时,GDP增长率上涨0.181个百分点,且1个单位的房地产投资波动的冲击在第4个季度时达到最大,之后缓慢衰减,这说明房地产投资的波动对GDP有长期的影响;③我国房地产价格增长速度上升1个百分点时,通货膨胀率则上升0.118个百分点,且通货膨胀率对房价波动冲击的响应比较小,在第8个月达到最大,以后则开始衰减,在达到的最大的影响以后甚至出现负的、不稳定的影响。

The fluctuations of real estate industry affect the macroeconomics through many channels. We apply the cointegration model and VAR model to analyze the dynamic effects of real estate industry on macroeconomics,and the proved results as follows： （1） the fluctuations of real estate price have negative effects on the China＇s total consumption,contributing at least the 2.5% of the variance of consumption;（2） the fluctuations of real estate investment have significant positive effects on the GDP growth,proving that GDP growth rate rises 0.181% when the growth rate of real estate investment increases by 1%,and 1 unit impulse of investment will push the GDP reach the greatest growth rate at the 4th season and declines slowly,which means the fluctuations of real estate investment have long term effects on the growth GDP;（3） the fluctuations of housing price also affect the inflation rate,and in our empirical analysis a 1% increase of housing price will cause the inflation rate to rise by 0.118%;however the reaction of inflation rate to the impulse of house price＇s fluctuations are small and slow,showing that inflation rate reaches the maximum at the 8th month and then turns to decrease,even negative and unstable.