可竞争产品与贸易收支:基于我国出口品市场结构的研究

The Contestable Products and Trade Balance:the Research on China's Export Market Structure

我国出口产品属于可竞争产品的范畴,虽然不同厂商生产的产品存在差异,但由于进入门槛低,其定价模式等同于完全竞争产品。对我国主要出口产品的价格和出口规模之间的关系进行实证检验,结果发现尽管我国主要出口产品的规模很大,但实证检验难以拒绝价格不受出口规模影响的假定,也就难以否定我国的出口产品是可竞争产品。由此,本文建立了一个可竞争条件下贸易收支决定的简约模型和实证检验的方程。然后,在协整检验的基础上建立向量误差修正模型(VECM),对各变量的冲击进行脉冲响应函数分析。实证分析的结果显示,我国出口产品的市场结构与贸易收支之间存在内在联系。

China＇s exports fall into the ambit of the scope of contestable products,while the products from different manufacturers are heterogeneous,but because of the low entering barriers,and then its pricing model is the same as fully competitive products. The empirical tests between China＇s major exports＇ scale and export prices demonstrate that despite China＇s main exports are very large in scale,but it is difficult to refuse the assumption that the price does not affected by the export scale in the empirical analysis,and then the assumption that China＇s main exports are fully competitive cannot be denied. On this basis,this paper constructed a simple model how the trade balance decided and an empirical examination equation in fully competitive conditions. Based on co-integration test,the paper established a vector error correction model （VECM） to analyze the impact of the variables＇ change in the impulse response function. The empirical analysis shows that China＇s trade balance was intrinsically linked with the market structure of exports indeed.