数值预报产品统计释用技术在热带气旋路径客观预报中的应用

THE APPLICATION OF STATISTICAL INTERPRETATION THCHNIQUES USING NWP PRODUCTS TO OBJECTIVE FORECASTING TROPICAL CYCLONE MOTION

首先对应用数值预报产品统计释用技术的效果进行了统计，结果表明，数值预报产品统计释用技术的应用改善了热带气旋路径客观预报中预报因子的预报能力，提高了模式的预报技巧并拓展了有效预报时效。继而对热带气旋路径客观预报中若干统计释用技术问题进行了讨论，并指出：在应用数值预报产品构造热带气旋路径客观预报模式时，采用大样本资料和完全预报方法，细心构造反映各种天气系统特征和物理量场的预报因子，应用多时刻ＮＷＰ产品并对ＮＷＰ产品进行统计订正。对多种预报模式的预报结果进行综合集成等技术是提高预报技巧和稳定性的有效途径。

The statistical interpretation techniques using NWP products that were applied to objective forecasting tropical cyclone motion have improved forecasting ability of predictors and increased forecast score and extended forecasting valid time.Some techniques in construction of objective forecast model for tropical cycione motion,such as selection of PP model,using bigger sample size,construction of predictors that have higher correlation between it and TC motion,using NWP products for multiple times,correction for errors of NWP and application of consensus forecast have increased forecast score and forecast stability.