江苏-南黄海地区中强地震干支60周期特征研究

RESEARCH ON THE CHARACTERISTICS OF THE MODERATE EAR THQUAKES OCCURRING WITH THE 60 YEAR CYCLE OF THE HEAVENLY STEMS AND EARTHLY BRANCHES IN THE JIANGSU AND SOUTHERN YELLOW SEA AREA

根据１５００～１９９７年地震资料分析研究，江苏－南黄海地区Ｍ≥５中强地震具有显著的干支６０年周期性特征。作者对其独特的预测功能进行了初步研究。结果表明，未来几年该区依然存在５～６级地震的危险性，该区本世纪第二地震活跃幕可能持续到２００９～２０１２年前后。

According to the analysis of the seismic data from AD 1500 to 1997,the moderate earthquakes of M ≥5 in the Jiangsu and Southern Yellow Sea area had outstanding characteristics of the 60 year cycle of the Heavenly Stems and Earthly Branches. The preliminary researches on its unique performance of prediction have been carried out.The results show that the probability of occurrences of earthquakes with magnitude 5—4 exists in the future several years in this area;the second episode of seismic activity of the area in this century will finish around the years of 2009 to 2012.