北京暴雨与旱涝关系的分析

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TORRENTIAL RAIN AND DROUGHT/FLOOD OVER BEIJING AREA

根据北京近百年的逐日降水资料，分析了汛期暴雨与汛期旱涝的关系．指出：汛期暴雨多少和强度对汛期降水丰歉具有决定性作用；在给出的３种暴雨指数中，相当暴雨日数与旱涝级别的相关性最好．文中还讨论了旱涝短期气候预测与暴雨过程的短期气候预测相结合的必要性．

The relationship between torrential rain and drought/flood of flood period is analy sed based on the daily rainfall data of last 100 years in Beijing. It is shown that the frequency and intensity of torrential rain are important for the amount of precipitation in flood period(June￣August). In three kinds of torrential rain indexes,the number of equivalent torrential rain day has the best correlation with drought/flood grade. It is discussed on the necessity that short range climatic prediction of drought/flood should combine with short range climatic prediction of torrential rain process.