军事欺骗战法分析的数学方法-理论

Mathematics Method for Analysis of Military Deception Tactics--Theory

针对军事欺骗战法定量分析困难的问题,采用基于贝叶斯统计推断和博弈均衡分析的数学方法在理论上为解决此难题提供了一种可行的方法。该方法首先定义基本概率矩阵,然后根据贝叶斯原理为交战双方构造用于统计推断的主观概率矩阵,并在由两个主观概率矩阵元素构成的偏序链与实施军事欺骗机会之间建立了对应关系,再将此关系推广到基本概率矩阵,即是否存在实施军事欺骗的机会将由基本概率矩阵元素构成的偏序链决定。数学分析表明:对于2×2基本概率矩阵,这样的偏序链长度为3、总数为8,通过对这些偏序链的分析,可以为军事欺骗战法的研究和运用提供科学依据。

Quantity analysis of military deception tactics is difficult and there are no methods to implement this analysis. This paper describes a possible mathematics method based on Bayesian statistical inference and game equilibrium analysis for completing this analysis in theory. First of all, the definition of basic probability matrix is involved for building subjective probability matrixes for statistical inference of two sides of game by Bayesian principle. Next, the correspondence relationship between the military deception chance and the partial order link constructed by elements of two subjective probability matrixes is built for analyzing the partial order link constructed by elements of basic probability matrix. The chance of military deception is finally determined by the partial order link of basic probability matrix. The mathematics analysis shows that for a 2×2 basic probability matrix, the length and the number of all its partial order links related to the scientific research and application of military deception tactics respectively are 3 and 8.