干支60周期及可公度性与江苏—南黄海地区地震预测

Gan Zhi 60 cycle and commensurability to earthquake prediction in Jiangsu-South Yellow Sea region

根据１５００年以来的地震资料分析，江苏—南黄海地区Ｍ≥５中强震具有显著的干支６０周期性特征，南黄海海域Ｍ≥６强震具有良好的可公度性，并对其基本结构和预测功能进行了研究。未来几年该区依然存在５～６级地震的危险性，第二活跃幕可能将持续到２００９年前后。

Based on processing seismic data in Jiangsu-South Yellow Sea region since 1500,the characteristics of Gan Zhi 60 cycle and commensurability and their forecasting function of moderately strong earthquake are discussed in detail.The results show that M ≥5 earthquake will probably occur around 1999 and the next M ≥6 earthquake will probably occur around 2002.