山东近百年降水的层次结构及趋势诊断

DEGREE STRUCTURE AND TREND DIAGNOSIS OF PRECIPITATION IN RECENT CENTURY IN SHANDONG

本文采用子波变换的方法分析了山东烟台、济南、青岛近百年降水距平序列，结果表明：气候系统高层次（时间尺度大）的多（少）雨期是由若干中低层次的多雨期或少雨期组成，东部沿海地区的烟台、青岛气候层次为7，降水变化以准70年周期振荡显著，中西部地区的济南气候层次为6，以准11年周期振荡最为显著。在百年以上尺度上，我省未来20年内为降水多雨期或平水期，但还存在中小尺度的降水偏多偏少阶段，2000年以前降水以偏少为主。

Time series of precipitation anomaly in Yantai, Qingdao and Jinan inShandong Province are analysed by means of wavelet transformation. The results show thatin climatic system the wet or dry duration at high degree is composed of several wet or drydurations at mid-low degrees,and that in Yantai and Qingdqo,which are located in the eastpart near seashore,there are seven climatic degrees and the significant period is quasi-sevenyears,and that in Jinan,which is in the mid-west part of the province,there are six climaticdegrees and the most remarkable period is quasi-11 years. At hundred yearscale,the precipitation will be more or nomalin the coming 2O years in Shandong province while there existwet or dry periods at smaller scales- But the rainfall will be probably less than usual be forethe year of 2000.