应用线性化方法作江淮气旋发生的概率预报

USING LINEAR METHOD TO FORECAST THE HAPPENING PROBABILITY OF JIANGHUAI CYCLONE

利用几十年气旋资料，应用经验统计及智能数据库技术，精选与气旋发生关系密切的因子，采用非线性回归变换，建立概率回归方程。将T016数值产品代入回归方程进行气旋概率预报。经实际应用并采用Brier评分，结果满意。

A statistics and intelligent database technique is applied to select the factorswhich should be closely related with cyclone by the use of several ten years data- The proba-' bility equation is set up with a non-linear regression change. The T106 numerical forecastproducts are put into the equation to do the cyclone forecasting. The result of Brier mark issatisfied after operational application.