应用改进的灰色模型预测民航管制员数量

Application of Improved Gray Model in the Air Traffic Controller Number Prediction

建立了灰色预测模型,进而运用马尔可夫链理论对灰色预测模型进行了改进。针对我国近年来民航管制员的数量变化,分别应用两种模型进行了预测。结果表明,通过马尔可夫链理论修正的预测模型,预测精度得到了较大的改善,结果更为准确,预测结果能为民航各级人事决策者提供依据。

The number of air traffic controller is an important condition to the sustainable development of civil aviation. In this paper, based on the gray prediction model, the Markov chain theory was applied to modify the gray prediction model According to the diversification of civil aviation controller in China, the aboved two methods was applied to predict the number of controller. The results showed that the amended forecast model was effective and the result was much accurate, it can provide the basis for personnel＇s decision-makers of civil aviation.