基于巨涨落模式的民航安全周期界定方法研究

Research of Civil Aviation Safety Cycle Definition Method Based on Huge Fluctuation Model

中国民航安全水平的周期性问题是民航安全研究的热点之一。在总结已有的民航安全波动周期界定方法的基础上,分析了系统安全周期性现象的形成过程,提出了采用安全水平巨涨落波动模式判断宏观安全周期的新方法,比较了不同界定方法的特点,并对新界定方法安全周期滞后的原因进行了分析,新方法对深化安全周期性问题的认识、促进持续安全具有积极意义。

The cyclical problem of Chinese civil aviation safety level is one of the hot spots in the civil aviation safety research field. Based on the conclusion of fluctuations in the cycle of civil aviation security definition methods, this paper analyzed the formation process of the cyclical phenomenon about system safety, and a new method has been provided to determine the cycle of macro safety, which used huge fluctuation model about the level of safety, compared the characteristics of different definition methods, and analyzed the reasons why the new methods of definition lagged behind the safety cycle. The new methods deepened the cyclical problem of security awareness and promoted the safety development, which has a positive significance.